Stability Analysis of Indian Sapota Export Markets Markov Chain Approach

Abstract

Sapota (Acharas zapota) is one of the important tropical fruits belonging to the family Sapotaceae. Sapota occupies the 8th position among all fruits production in the country accounting for 2.51 per cent of total fruit production. Maharashtra stands first with highest sapota area of about 70,000 hectares contributing about 43.75 per cent of the total sapota area of the country. The paper attempts to quantify the changing structure of Indian mango exports. Data for analysis was taken for a period of 12 years from 2001-2 to 2012- 13 from various published issues of APEDA. Compound growth rate (CGR) and instability index was used for analyzing the nature and magnitude of growth in sapota area, production, productivity, export quantity and export value over the years. The markov chain analysis was attempted through linear programming method to assess the transition probabilities for the major sapota .The major sapota export markets were, UAE, UK, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and Qatar. The major sapota export markets were categorized as stable market (U.A.E, Bharain and other countries) and unstable markets (Saudi Arabia and Qatar) based on the magnitude of transition probabilities. Though the country has a good potential for export of sapota inadequate processing, storage, handling and transportation are hindering the progress. In order to address these issues in an integrated way the present study was attempted with the following specific objectives. 1. To analyse the nature and magnitude of growth and instability in area, production and productivity of sapota in India. 2. To examine the direction of sapota export trade.