Modelling Sectoral Gdps for Forecasting Indian GDP Using Arma Models

Abstract

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is most widely used to measure and compare economic growth of countries. GDP of a country is value of all goods and services produced in the country in a given time, usually a year, and counted with duplication. Nature of modern economies being intricate, GDP is measured sector wise and then sector GDPs are added to form overall GDP. Sectors normally represent similar activities and therefore measurement issues are also similar. Study of growth of country primarily hinges on study of GDP and study of sector specific GDPs assumes critical importance in making a holistic assessment. With this objective, GDP of different sectors and also the over all GDP have been modeUed using ARMA models and based on the optimal model future values have also been forecasted. The models and the future values throw important clues on the future course of development of these sectors.