Study of Collision Probability of 2 Geostationary Satellites Using Foster’s Method

Abstract

Space debris poses a comprehensive threat with various implications. The foremost concern is the collision risk it poses to operational satellites and spacecraft, heightening the potential for catastrophic damage. Additionally, the accumulation of debris leads to orbital congestion, impeding the progress of future space missions and the deployment of satellites. A particularly concerning consequence is the potential for a fragmentation cascade, where collisions between debris particles initiate a chain reaction, amplifying the debris problem. Even small debris particles hold significance, as their impact can impair critical satellite components, resulting in operational failures and service disruptions. Furthermore, the safety of astronauts is compromised during space missions due to the risk posed by space debris to spacecraft and spacesuits, underscoring the need for diligent management and mitigation strategies. There are many methods to find collision probability between satellites and debris in space. The two major classifications are short term and long-term methods. In this study a particular short-term method is employed to find the collision probability of 2 geostationary satellites. This study utilizes Foster's method to assess the collision probability between a geostationary satellite and space debris which is in an orbit of radius 42000 km. By analyzing orbital parameters and considering the presence of space debris, the study evaluates the possibility of potential collisions within a span of 10 days. The scenario is validated by utilizing the Free flyer software. The numerical analysis using the Foster’s method is performed to verify the result.