Models Used for Forecasting Diffusion of Alternate - Fulled Vehicles : A Review

Abstract

This article intends to review literature on aggregate and disaggregate models in forecasting diffusion of alternate-fuelled vehicles ( AF Vs). it introduces major aggregate and disaggregate mathematical models (primarily the Bass model and the stated preference models respectively) in diffusion of AFVs and discusses them. The article then reviews the literature, based on certain criteria, that uses these models to study diffusion of AFVs. Four broad themes are identified from the review process, namely, attributes used in the survey, data processing considerations, willingness of consumers to pay, and market share of alternate fuelled vehicles. The treatment of these themes in literature is analysed. The review concludes that improvements in technology, appropriate government p olicies (such as reduced taxation), and improvement in relevant infrastructure (such as refueling networks) can help alternate fuelled vehicles achieve significant diffusion. Market share of AFVs vary widely across studies and scenarios. This probably is due to the/act that since the technology is new, adequate data to fi1lly exploit the capabilities of the bass model are not available. ft is also a fact that almost no data from the developing world is available, and this can be construed as a limitation of the study. The review, although mainly constituted by literature from the developed world, provides a context to policy planners in the developing countries, such as India, that aim to increase penetration of AFVs.