Assessment of Economic Growth Aspects and Prospects in South Pacific Countries Till 2015

Abstract

The South pacific region is a source of cauldron of major powers attracting the attention of Australia, China and USA but dominated for the last half a century by Australia. This paper analyses the growth trend in the South Pacific countries. The parameters analyzed are Unemployment, Import-Exports and Tourism through the time series data obtained from IMF, WTTC. The results show a significant impact of Import-Exports and Tourism on the GDP of these countries which has been shown by the significance of the model. The parameters like unemployment rate, Import and Export and Tourism sector of South pacific Countries are analyzed after calculating the growth rates. The Time Series data oflSyears is obtained from the IMF, WTTC and the World Bank. Four growth rate formulas are used for robust analysis are OLS, Log Difference, Average Annual Growth Rate and Geometric Average rate. Model used for regression: GDP= a+/31(Net Exports)+ ?2(Tourism contribution)+ ?. Analysis is done for lOyear time period till 2015 for Fiji, East Timor, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tonga, Kiribati with exclusions due inconsistency in data availability. Unemployment calculation was done to show the need to assess the economics of these neglected South Pacific Island Countries and how Trade composition in exports and Imports, Tourism is impacting growth and consequent need for Aid. Narayan's approach was used to study the role of tourism for this paper. Four sections excluding the introduction and conclusion is done. Finally potential role for India is highlighted.